Estimation and Variance Decomposition in a Small-size DSGE Model

Lecturer PhD Oana Simona HUDEA (CARAMAN)
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to make a grounded estimation-based analysis of the Romanian economy, considering several central economic variables, aggregated at macroeconomic level. By resorting to a basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the final equations of which are briefly described herein, and to the Bayes theorem imposing the setting of priors for the parameters to be estimated, the paper reveals the output obtained, in compliance with the methodological steps previously rendered, the main results, relating to the check of plots, the posterior distribution and the variance decomposition of the model variables  being presented and discussed from an economic perspective.

JEL codes: C11, C13, C52, C68

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Sumar RRSS 1/2015