Professor Habil. PhD. Gheorghe Săvoiu
University of Pitești
Senior Lecturer PhD. Gogu Emilia
PhD. candidate Ionescu Alexandru
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
ABSTRACT
The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.
Key words: gross domestic product (GDP) elasticity coefficient, correlation matrix, econometric model, fuel export / import.
JEL Classification: C15, C19, C51, C53.
